TL;DR: Bluesky stands at a crossroads: become "a well-made Twitter clone" or establish the foundation for a new social web. UI improvements alone won't suffice. Within a year, we need success stories beyond bsky.app, economic sustainability, and expanded interoperability. Grassroots experimentation is happening, but Bluesky PBC must lead strategically.

Why Do We Need a New Protocol?

With existing protocols like HTTP and email, why create ATProto?

The answer lies in escaping "social graph imprisonment." The web has shifted from documents to social graphs, yet follow relationships remain locked within individual services. HTTP transports documents but doesn't guarantee persistent author identity. Email addresses depend on servers.

ATProto provides three key capabilities:

  • Self-sovereign identity (DID)

  • Portable social graphs

  • Content addressing

In other words: infrastructure where "you can leave X and take your followers with you." Portability at the social layer is the novel necessity that existing protocols lack.

What Does ATP Need to Succeed?

Pragmatism over idealism. We should aim for what HTTP achieved: people using it without thinking about it.

What Bluesky PBC Should Do

  • Demonstrate killer use cases: Seriously nurture specialized apps in academia, creator economy, and public institutions

  • Make infrastructure invisible: Managed PDS hosting, automatic AppView switching

  • Establish an economic ecosystem: Revenue models for Labelers/PDS/AppViews. WordPress-style ecosystem strategy

  • Promote interoperability: Strengthen connections with Threads/Mastodon

What Grassroots Engineers Can Do

  • Build/use alternative AppViews: Create specialized "can't-live-without-it" experiences

  • Operate Labelers: Demonstrate the moderation marketplace

  • Pay for services: Invest in sustainability

  • Abandon the "decentralized = free" illusion: Support economically rational designs

Does Bluesky PBC Have a Future in One Year?

Currently, Bluesky PBC focuses on UI improvements and protocol implementation. But this alone leads to "a well-made Twitter clone."

What We Need Within a Year

  • Success stories beyond bsky.app (academic SNS, creator-focused platforms, etc.)

  • Proof of economic sustainability (emergence of Labeler/PDS businesses)

  • Expanded interoperability (Threads/Mastodon integration)

What Happens Otherwise

  • The ecosystem won't grow

  • Bluesky PBC exhausts itself with costs

  • It becomes "an SNS with few users"

  • ATP is remembered as a protocol that failed to gain adoption

UI improvements are necessary but insufficient. The future one year from now will be built outside bsky.app. Grassroots must experiment independently.

The Next Move: Subscription → Foundation → Ecosystem Support

Phase 1: Short-term

Implement basic features like private accounts and group DMs to bring user experience up to competitive standards. Launch subscriptions to establish revenue foundation.

Phase 2: Mid-term

Use revenue to establish an "ATP Foundation"-style organization. Provide grants to grassroots developers, technical and financial support to alternative AppView/Labeler/PDS operators. Follow the Mozilla/WordPress Foundation model.

Structure:

  • Bluesky Corporation (for-profit) earns from bsky.app

  • ATP Foundation (non-profit) nurtures the ecosystem

  • Similar to: Mozilla Corporation + Mozilla Foundation, or Automattic + WordPress Foundation

Why Bluesky PBC Itself Should Do This

External investor funds for ATP development already exist, but Bluesky PBC taking the lead has unique significance:

  • Reconciling short-term revenue with long-term vision

    • bsky.app's success feeds back into the entire ATP ecosystem

    • Avoids the false dichotomy of "grow bsky.app OR grow ATP"

  • Incentive design for grassroots developers

    • Shifts from "volunteer goodwill" to "funded R&D"

    • Avoids the burnout problem that plagued Mastodon

  • Securing legitimacy

    • Positions Bluesky PBC as an "ecosystem cultivator," not an "ATP monopolist"

    • Transparentizes protocol governance

  • Economic sustainability

    • Subscription revenue → Grants → New apps emerge → ATP ecosystem becomes more attractive → bsky.app users increase → More subscription revenue

    • Creates a positive feedback loop

How to Make This Happen

What Bluesky PBC Should Do

  • Succeed at monetization: Secure annual revenue in the hundreds of millions (USD) through subscriptions

  • Establish the foundation: Create a non-profit organization independent from Bluesky PBC (separate legal entity)

  • Design grant programs:

    • Support development of specialized AppViews

    • Infrastructure subsidies for Labeler/PDS operators

    • Funding for academic research

  • Ensure transparency: Publicly disclose grant selection criteria and fund usage

What Grassroots Should Do

  • Develop with grants in mind: Continue experimenting with faith that support will come

  • Create success stories: Build small but demonstrably useful implementations

  • Form community: Build networks among ATP developers

The Key Decision

How you spend the money you earn determines everything.

That's the crossroads between "ending as a Twitter clone" and "becoming the foundation of a new web."

Mozilla and Automattic proved that the for-profit/non-profit dual approach works. The question is whether Bluesky can do the same.

Start small if necessary—launch an "ATP Fund" early to demonstrate commitment. Make grant criteria transparent (like GitHub Sponsors). Incorporate community voting for some grant recipients.

The future one year from now depends on whether Bluesky PBC chooses to invest its profits back into the ecosystem, or merely optimize its own app.

This article synthesizes discussions about ATP's structural challenges, lessons from Mastodon instance closures, and pathways to sustainable decentralized social infrastructure. The grassroots are ready to experiment. Now it's Bluesky PBC's turn to show strategic leadership.