Will Bluesky PBC Still Exist in Two Years? The Ideals and Reality of Decentralized Social Networks

Bluesky PBC raised $15 million in Series A funding in October 2024[^1]. Just three months later, in January 2025, reports emerged of new funding at a $700 million valuation[^2]. With registered users surpassing 35 million[^3], the rapid growth has attracted investor interest. Yet new questions arise simultaneously. How will this platform, which champions an ad-free model, monetize? Daily active users number only 2.5-3 million—roughly 8-10% of registered users[^3]. What does this figure tell us about its viability in two years?

The ideals of the AT Protocol are beautiful: account portability, choice in moderation, and decentralized infrastructure. It was designed as a technical answer to the structural problems inherent in centralized platforms. However, Bluesky Social itself, the reference implementation of this protocol, is now following a path toward de facto centralization. Moderation has clearly become stricter compared to the service's early days. This reflects the structural challenge many decentralized SNS platforms face: reconciling ideals with scale.

I once believed in these ideals naively, serving as a Bluesky ambassador. But after experiencing disillusionment several times, my position has shifted to that of an evangelist. If an ambassador's role is to actively promote the positive aspects, an evangelist is someone who believes in the ideals while speaking frankly about real-world limitations. Not blind praise, but maintaining a critical perspective while still seeking better directions. From this position, I want to question Bluesky's future.

The PBC (Public Benefit Corporation) structure embodies a structural dilemma. While obligated to pursue public benefit, it needs funding, and investors seek returns. As users surged from 10 million to 35 million in just a few months of 2024, infrastructure costs exploded. Yet Bluesky maintains its ad-free policy[^4], and aggressive monetization would conflict with its ideals. If it pivots to advertising like Twitter, what was the point of Bluesky in the first place? Investor patience has limits, and a $700 million valuation means shouldering correspondingly high revenue expectations.

More serious is user retention. With 35 million registered users but only 2.5-3 million daily active users, the ratio of about 8-10% isn't bad for an emerging SNS, but falls short of the 12-15% typical of mature platforms[^3]. The current reality—90% "dormant users" who registered but don't use it daily—raises questions about whether the platform's appeal is sustainable.

Two years from now, several scenarios are possible. The most worrying is dissolution. If a monetization model cannot be established and user retention remains low, funds will dry up. Bluesky Social's service will stop. The AT Protocol specification might remain, but who would maintain it? What happens to user data? A protocol alone is meaningless; implementation and infrastructure are necessary. Operating Relay and AppView requires substantial costs, beyond what volunteer-based efforts can sustain.

Acquisition is another scenario. If a major company like Meta or Microsoft acquires it, the protocol remains but operational policy changes. Moderation would shift further according to the acquiring company's preferences, and ideals would be diluted. Ultimately, centralization would simply progress again. Or zombification: barely surviving but growth stalled, development stagnant. Infrastructure maintained at minimum levels while users gradually leave. No new features, bugs ignored. Usable, but with no future.

The rapid growth scenario has already become reality. With the transition from invite-only to public access, 35 million registered users were acquired in a few months, and the company's valuation jumped roughly 50-fold from a year earlier. But with scale came stronger moderation, increased costs, and advancing centralization. It grew, but the gap from its ideals widened. None of these scenarios present an ideal outcome.

An even more cruel possibility exists. While the AT Protocol is considered technically superior, there exists an already-decentralized competitor: Mastodon/ActivityPub. Mastodon has over 15 million registered users and over 1 million DAU[^5], with multiple large instances operating without dependence on a single company. Better technology might lose to more decentralized inferior technology. But isn't that the essence of decentralization? Depending on a single reference implementation may mean it isn't true decentralization from the start.

The evangelist's dilemma runs deep. Speaking of ideals while knowing real limitations. When I call for "migrating to Bluesky," if asked "will it still exist in two years?", I'm at a loss for words. Fundraising appears smooth, but isn't it just increasing debt to investors? The reality that 90% of registrants are dormant raises questions about the platform's sustainability. If Bluesky disappears, how do I take responsibility for having advocated for it? Yet alternatives aren't perfect either. Twitter/X is Elon Musk's dictatorship, Threads is Meta's surveillance capitalism with an overwhelming 150 million users[^5], Mastodon is decentralized but difficult to use, and Nostr is too experimental. Nowhere feels like a safe home.

Perhaps continuing as an evangelist is based on a kind of resignation. Nothing is perfect. But we must continue seeking better directions. Not blind optimism, not cool pessimism, but an attitude of accepting imperfection while still moving forward. As long as critically-thinking evangelists exist, at least we won't fall into blind optimism. If Bluesky disappears, perhaps something inheriting the AT Protocol's ideals will emerge again.

What will become of Bluesky PBC in two years? I don't know. What is certain is that nowhere offers a safe haven. But that's precisely why we must keep walking.

Footnotes

[^1]: TechCrunch (October 24, 2024) " Bluesky raises $15M Series A, plans to launch subscriptions "

[^2]: Business Insider / The Information (January 2025) " Bluesky Said to Near $700 Million Valuation "

[^3]: Thunderbit (2025) " Bluesky Statistics: Complete Guide to Growth of the Decentralized Social Network "

[^4]: Bluesky Official Blog (October 24, 2024) " Bluesky Announces Series A to Grow Network of 13M+ Users "

[^5]: Thunderbit (2025) " Comparison of Bluesky with Other Decentralized SNS Platforms "